I’ve been watching as much as I can the Ebola outbreak in West Africa, and the role of epidemiological modeling in the response. The figure that most approaches start with is from here:
- Legrand J, Grais RF, Boelle PY, Valleron AJ, Flahault A. Understanding the dynamics of Ebola epidemics. Epidemiology and Infection. 2007 May;135(04):610.
An important extension to the model appeared in a recent paper:
- 1. Camacho A, Kucharski AJ, Funk S, Breman J, Piot P, Edmunds WJ. Potential for large outbreaks of Ebola virus disease. Epidemics [Internet]. [cited 2014 Oct 8]; Available from: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436514000528