The IHME weekly seminar kicked off for the quarter last week with Ver Bilano’s work on Estimation of recent trends in tobacco use and baseline projections to 2025. Ver used DisMod-MR extensively for this project, so I knew I was going to love it ahead of time.
IHME Seminar: Tobacco 2025 Targets
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Summer’s End
There are new fellows running around, and classes are underway. I guess the summer is coming to an end. I wonder where it all went. No, I know where.
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MCMC in Python: sim and fit with same model
Here is a github issue and solution that I saw the other day. I think it’s a nice pattern.
def generate_model(values={'mu': true_param, 'm': None}):
#prior
mu = pymc.Uniform("mu", lower=-10, upper=10, value=values['mu'],
observed=(values['mu'] is not None))
# likelihood function
m = pymc.Normal("m", mu=mu, tau=tau, value=values['m'],
observed=(values['m'] is not None))
return locals()
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MCMC in Python: Fit a non-linear function with PyMC
Here is a recent q&a on stack overflow that I did and liked.

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Tabular Data in Python: Getting just the columns I want from pandas.DataFrame.describe
The Python Pandas DataFrame object has become the mainstay of my data manipulation work over the last two years. One thing that I like about it is the `.describe()` method, that computes lots of interesting things about columns of a table. I often want those results stratified, and `.groupby(col)` + `.describe()` is a powerful combination for doing that.
*But* today, and many days, I don’t want all of the things that `.describe()` describes. And the ones that I do want, I want as columns. Here is the recipe for that:
import pandas as pd
df = pd.DataFrame({'A': [0,0,0,0,1,1],
'B': [1,2,3,4,5,6],
'C': [8,9,10,11,12,13]})
df.groupby('A').describe().unstack()\
.loc[:,(slice(None),['count','mean']),]
and out comes just what I wanted:
B C
count mean count mean
A
0 4 2.5 4 9.5
1 2 5.5 2 12.5
It took me a while to figure this out, and these docs helped:
http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/reshaping.html#reshaping-by-stacking-and-unstacking
http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-xs
Here it is as a ipython notebook.
(Note: this requires Pandas version at least 0.14.)
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The one before that
Jake Vanderplas’s comparison of Python MCMC modules was preceded by a Bayesian polemic. In general, I find the stats philosophy war old-timey and distracting, but his comparison of confidence intervals and credible intervals is something I need to understand better.
http://jakevdp.github.io/blog/2014/06/12/frequentism-and-bayesianism-3-confidence-credibility/
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MCMC in Python: a bake-off
While I’m on a microblogging spree, I’ve been meaning to link to this informative comparison of pymc, emcee, and pystan: http://jakevdp.github.io/blog/2014/06/14/frequentism-and-bayesianism-4-bayesian-in-python/
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MCMC in Python: Another thing that turns out to be hard
Here is an interesting StackOverflow question, about a model for data distributed as the sum of two uniforms with unknown support. I was surprised how hard it was for me.
I think the future of probabilistic programming should be to make a model for this easy to code.
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MCMC in Python: Never… no… always check for convergence
I’ve had no teaching responsibilities over the last quarter, and I must miss it. I’ve found myself responding to PyMC questions on StackOverflow more than ever before. It is an interesting window into what is hard in Bayesian computation. Checking (and achieving) MCMC convergence is one thing that is hard. Here are some questions and answers that include it:
http://stackoverflow.com/questions/24294203/difference-between-bugs-model-and-pymc/24347102#24347102
http://stackoverflow.com/questions/24242660/pymc3-multiple-observed-values/24271760#24271760
http://stackoverflow.com/questions/24402834/fitting-power-law-function-with-pymc/24413323#24413323
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Graduation Congratulations 2014
This is the season of graduation activities at IHME and UW. Congrats to my colleagues completing their fellowships!
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