Uncertainty quantification by clinicians

I continue to be drawn to articles in JAMA Oncology about how we wrestle with uncertain information in life-and-death decision making:
http://oncology.jamanetwork.com/article.aspx?articleID=2398178
http://oncology.jamanetwork.com/article.aspx?articleID=2398176

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Laplace approximation in PyMC3, revisited

I found an even better example of the value of Laplace approximation, and its just a small tweak to the example I did a few weeks ago: http://nbviewer.ipython.org/gist/aflaxman/6d0a9ff2441348f3a130

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Just when I get busy, a pile of interesting NAP reports

They’ve also made it extra annoying to download them, but I won’t let that stop me:

Cross-Sector Responses to Obesity: Models for Change: Workshop Summary http://www.nap.edu/catalog/21706/cross-sector-responses-to-obesity-models-for-change-workshop-summary

Preventing Intimate Partner Violence in Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania: Summary of a Joint Workshop by the Institute of Medicine, the National Research Council, and the Ugandan National Academy of Sciences http://www.nap.edu/catalog/21756/preventing-intimate-partner-violence-in-uganda-kenya-and-tanzania-summary

A Framework for Assessing Effects of the Food System http://www.nap.edu/catalog/18846/a-framework-for-assessing-effects-of-the-food-system

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What is the data source for the recent study involving drinking patters

From: XXX
Sent: Monday, June 29, 2015 12:15 PM
To: Laura Dwyer-Lindgren; Gillian Hansen; Abraham D. Flaxman
Subject: US County Drinking Data

Hello All,

What is the data source for the recent study involving drinking patters in US Counties from 2002-2012?!

Thanks,

Aaron

From: Abraham D. Flaxman
Sent: Tuesday, June 30, 2015 8:22 AM
Subject: RE: US County Drinking Data

Hi Aaron,

Thanks for your interest in this work. Our study is summarized here: http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/drinking-patterns-us-counties-2002-2012 and published in AJPH:
Dwyer-Lindgren L, Flaxman AD, Ng M, Hansen GM, Murray CJL, Mokdad AH. Drinking patterns in US counties from 2002 to 2012. American Journal of Public Health. 2015 April 23; e1-e8. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2014.302313. http://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/abs/10.2105/AJPH.2014.302313
The data is from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), a rolling telephone survey, which collects around 250,000 interviews a year. You can see the results for Marathon County in context in our mapping tool here: http://ihmeuw.org/3gar

I suspect that there are other people wondering this as well… with your permission, I’ll include some of this correspondence on my blog, http://healthyalgorithms.com/

–Abie

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More interesting reading in JAMA Oncology

These oncology docs really have to think about communicating risk and the affective aspects of decision making: http://oncology.jamanetwork.com/article.aspx?articleid=2239094

Next I can read ref 1: http://jnci.oxfordjournals.org/content/103/19/1436

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Book’s got a cover!

An Integrative Metaregression Framework for Descriptive Epidemiology – http://www.amazon.com/Integrative-Metaregression-Descriptive-Epidemiology-Publications/dp/0295991844

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Porting PyMC2 models to PyMC3

It is time for me to start doing this. Here is a StackOverflow question and answer about it, if it is time for you, too: http://stackoverflow.com/questions/30798447/porting-pymc2-code-to-pymc3-hierarchical-model-for-sports-analytics/30853077#30853077

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